UNEC Zaqatala filial\u0131n\u0131n m\u00fc\u0259llimi<\/em><\/p>\n E-mail: alisgenderovgulnar@gmail.com <\/em><\/p>\n \u00a0<\/em><\/p>\n \u00dclk\u0259r \u0130SF\u018fND\u0130YAROVA <\/strong><\/p>\n UNEC Zaqatala filial\u0131n\u0131n m\u00fc\u0259llimi <\/em><\/p>\n E-mail: ulkar-isfendiyarova@unec.edu.az<\/em><\/p>\n \u00a0<\/em><\/p>\n P\u0259rvan\u0259 \u0130SMAYILOVA <\/strong><\/p>\n UNEC Zaqatala filial\u0131n\u0131n ba\u015f m\u00fc\u0259llimi <\/em><\/p>\n E-mail: parvana-ismayilova@unec.edu.az<\/em><\/p>\n (Zaqatala, Az\u0259rbaycan) <\/em><\/p>\n \u00a0<\/strong><\/p>\n \u00a0<\/strong><\/p>\n X\u00fclas\u0259.<\/strong> M\u0259qal\u0259d\u0259 Az\u0259rbaycan Respublikas\u0131nda ya\u015fay\u0131\u015f binalar\u0131n\u0131n tikintisi sektorunun g\u00f6st\u0259ricil\u0259rin\u0259 t\u0259sir g\u00f6st\u0259r\u0259n amill\u0259r aras\u0131nda as\u0131l\u0131l\u0131\u011f\u0131n k\u0259miyy\u0259tc\u0259 qiym\u0259tl\u0259ndirilm\u0259si m\u0259s\u0259l\u0259l\u0259ri ara\u015fd\u0131r\u0131l\u0131r. T\u0259dqiqat\u0131n m\u0259qs\u0259di \u0259halinin g\u0259lirl\u0259rinin, \u0259sas kapitala qoyulan investisiyalar\u0131n v\u0259 \u00f6lk\u0259d\u0259 nikahlar\u0131n say\u0131n\u0131n istifad\u0259y\u0259 verilmi\u015f ya\u015fay\u0131\u015f binalar\u0131na t\u0259sirinin ekonometrik modell\u0259rini haz\u0131rlamaqd\u0131r.<\/p>\n M\u0259qal\u0259d\u0259 tikinti sektorunun iqtisadi x\u00fcsusiyy\u0259tl\u0259ri t\u0259hlil edilir v\u0259 bu sah\u0259nin m\u00fcr\u0259kk\u0259b iqtisadi-kibernetik sistem oldu\u011fu q\u0259na\u0259tin\u0259 g\u0259linir.<\/p>\n T\u0259dqiqat \u00fc\u00e7\u00fcn m\u0259lumat bazas\u0131 kimi tikinti sektorunun g\u00f6st\u0259ricil\u0259rinin zaman s\u0131ralar\u0131 v\u0259 nikahlar\u0131n statistikas\u0131ndan istifad\u0259 edilmi\u015fdir. Zaman s\u0131ral\u0131 veril\u0259nl\u0259r analizinin \u0259sas x\u00fcsusiyy\u0259ti ondan ibar\u0259tdir ki, qiym\u0259tl\u0259ndirm\u0259 apar\u0131lmam\u0131\u015fdan \u0259vv\u0259l d\u0259yi\u015f\u0259nl\u0259rin h\u0259r birinin stasionarl\u0131\u011f\u0131 yoxlan\u0131lmal\u0131 v\u0259 al\u0131nan n\u0259tic\u0259l\u0259r\u0259 uy\u011fun t\u0259hlil metodu se\u00e7ilm\u0259lidir. D\u0259yi\u015f\u0259nl\u0259rin stasionarl\u0131\u011f\u0131n\u0131 yoxlamaq \u00fc\u00e7\u00fcn vahid k\u00f6k testl\u0259rind\u0259n biri olan geni\u015fl\u0259ndirilmi\u015f Dikki-Fuller (Dickey-Fuller) testi h\u0259yata ke\u00e7irilmi\u015fdir. Al\u0131nan n\u0259tic\u0259l\u0259r t\u0259dqiqata c\u0259lb olunmu\u015f zaman s\u0131ralar\u0131n\u0131n birinci t\u0259rtib f\u0259rql\u0259r\u0259 g\u00f6r\u0259 I(1) TC stasionarl\u0131\u011f\u0131n\u0131 t\u0259sdiq edir. Eyni zamanda apar\u0131lm\u0131\u015f qrafik t\u0259hlil trendin m\u00f6vcud oldu\u011funu da g\u00f6st\u0259rir.<\/p>\n Reqressiya t\u0259hlili n\u0259tic\u0259sind\u0259 bu zaman s\u0131ralar\u0131 \u0259sas\u0131nda istismara verilmi\u015f m\u0259nzill\u0259rin reqressorlardan korrelyasiya as\u0131l\u0131l\u0131\u011f\u0131 \u00f6yr\u0259nilmi\u015f v\u0259 \u00e7oxd\u0259yi\u015f\u0259nli reqressiya modeli qurulmu\u015fdur. Modell\u0259r\u0259 \u201c@TREND\u201d v\u0259 laq d\u0259yi\u015f\u0259nl\u0259ri daxil edilmi\u015fdir. Qurulmu\u015f modelin adekvatl\u0131\u011f\u0131n\u0131 yoxlamaq \u00fc\u00e7\u00fcn m\u00fcxt\u0259lif testl\u0259rd\u0259n istifad\u0259 edilmi\u015fdir. Ard\u0131c\u0131l korrelyasiya probleminin yoxlan\u0131lmas\u0131 \u00fc\u00e7\u00fcn korrelloqram, homoskedastiklik \u00fc\u00e7\u00fcn ARCH v\u0259 normal paylanma \u00fc\u00e7\u00fcn Jarque-Bera testl\u0259rind\u0259n istifad\u0259 edilmi\u015fdir.<\/p>\n Qurulmu\u015f model m\u0259nzil v\u0259 \u0259m\u0259k bazarlar\u0131n\u0131n real \u015f\u0259rtl\u0259rini adekvat qiym\u0259tl\u0259ndirm\u0259k v\u0259 proqnozla\u015fd\u0131rmada istifad\u0259 etm\u0259k \u00fc\u00e7\u00fcn \u0259lveri\u015flidir.<\/p>\n <\/p>\n A\u00e7ar s\u00f6zl\u0259r: <\/strong>tikinti sektoru, ekonometrik modell\u0259\u015fdirm\u0259, zaman s\u0131ralar\u0131, stasionarl\u0131q, komp\u00fcter proqram paketl\u0259ri, avtokorrelyasiya<\/p>\n <\/p>\n <\/p>\n Giri\u015f<\/strong><\/p>\n <\/p>\n \u00d6lk\u0259nin sosial-iqtisadi v\u0259ziyy\u0259ti v\u0259 inki\u015faf\u0131 vektorunun komponentl\u0259ri i\u00e7\u0259risind\u0259 \u0259m\u0259k bazar\u0131 v\u0259 tikinti sektoru \u0259halinin sosial durumuna bilavasit\u0259 t\u0259sir ed\u0259n komponentl\u0259r kimi diqq\u0259ti c\u0259lb edir. Bel\u0259 ki, \u0259m\u0259k bazar\u0131n\u0131n v\u0259ziyy\u0259ti \u0259halinin minimal h\u0259yat \u015f\u0259raitinin t\u0259min edilm\u0259sinin xarakteristikas\u0131 kimi \u00e7\u0131x\u0131\u015f edirs\u0259, onlar\u0131n m\u0259nzill\u0259rl\u0259 t\u0259min edilm\u0259si g\u0259l\u0259c\u0259y\u0259 inamlar\u0131n\u0131n g\u00f6st\u0259ricisin\u0259 \u00e7evrilir. \u00d6lk\u0259 \u0259halisinin m\u0259nzill\u0259r\u0259 olan t\u0259l\u0259binin \u00f6d\u0259nilm\u0259si s\u0259viyy\u0259si \u0259hali art\u0131m\u0131na, c\u0259miyy\u0259td\u0259 sosial rifaha bilavasit\u0259 t\u0259sir edir. \u00dcmumilikd\u0259, tikinti sektorunun v\u0259ziyy\u0259ti v\u0259 bu sektorda intensiv inki\u015faf trendinin m\u00f6vcudlu\u011fu \u00f6lk\u0259nin iqtisadi durumunun v\u0259 g\u0259l\u0259c\u0259k inki\u015faf perspektivl\u0259rinin, son n\u0259tic\u0259d\u0259 is\u0259 iqtisadi art\u0131m\u0131n sintez olunmu\u015f g\u00f6st\u0259ricisi rolunu oynaya bil\u0259r [6].<\/p>\n \u00d6lk\u0259mizd\u0259 son ill\u0259rd\u0259 m\u00fc\u015fahid\u0259 olunan davaml\u0131 iqtisadi art\u0131m, \u00f6lk\u0259 iqtisadiyyat\u0131n\u0131n inki\u015faf\u0131na v\u0259 dig\u0259r \u00f6lk\u0259l\u0259rd\u0259 ba\u015f ver\u0259n siyasi, iqtisadi probleml\u0259rd\u0259n g\u0259l\u0259n t\u0259sirl\u0259rin neytralla\u015fd\u0131r\u0131lmas\u0131na y\u00f6n\u0259ldilmi\u015f kompleks t\u0259dbirl\u0259rin h\u0259yata ke\u00e7irilm\u0259si tikinti sektorunun inki\u015faf\u0131na \u0259lveri\u015fli \u015f\u0259rait yaratm\u0131\u015fd\u0131r. N\u0259tic\u0259d\u0259 \u00f6lk\u0259d\u0259 vacib infrastruktur layih\u0259l\u0259rin realla\u015fd\u0131r\u0131lmas\u0131na ba\u015flan\u0131lm\u0131\u015f, sosial m\u0259nzill\u0259rin in\u015fas\u0131na start verilmi\u015f v\u0259 bu sektorda qeyri-d\u00f6vl\u0259t m\u00fc\u0259ssis\u0259l\u0259rinin x\u00fcsusi \u00e7\u0259kisi artm\u0131\u015fd\u0131r. Bel\u0259 ki, son d\u00f6vrl\u0259rd\u0259 \u00f6lk\u0259mizd\u0259 tikinti-in\u015faat i\u015fl\u0259rinin 90%-\u0259 yax\u0131n bir hiss\u0259sini \u00f6z\u0259l m\u00fc\u0259ssis\u0259l\u0259r h\u0259yata ke\u00e7irirl\u0259r.<\/p>\n Tikinti-in\u015faat sektorunda m\u00fc\u015fahid\u0259 edil\u0259n dinamik inki\u015faf bu sektorla birba\u015fa ba\u011fl\u0131 olan \u0259m\u0259k bazar\u0131nda da maliyy\u0259 b\u00f6hran\u0131n\u0131n \u0259m\u0259l\u0259 g\u0259tirdiyi g\u0259rginliyi azaltma\u011fa, m\u0259cmu \u0259m\u0259k t\u0259klifi il\u0259 t\u0259l\u0259bi aras\u0131nda yaranm\u0131\u015f disproporsiyan\u0131 qism\u0259n d\u0259 olsa aradan qald\u0131rma\u011fa imkan yaratm\u0131\u015fd\u0131r. Bel\u0259 ki, bu sektorda h\u0259m Bak\u0131da, h\u0259m d\u0259 regional s\u0259viyy\u0259d\u0259 \u0259h\u0259miyy\u0259tli sayda yeni i\u015f yerl\u0259ri a\u00e7\u0131lm\u0131\u015fd\u0131r [8].<\/p>\n Haz\u0131rda Az\u0259rbaycan h\u00f6kum\u0259ti in\u015faat sektorunun canlanmas\u0131 v\u0259 \u0259halinin m\u0259nzil t\u0259minat\u0131n\u0131 art\u0131rmaq m\u0259qs\u0259dil\u0259 yeni stimulla\u015fd\u0131r\u0131c\u0131 add\u0131mlar atmaqdad\u0131r. \u00d6lk\u0259nin tikinti sektorunun dinamik inki\u015faf\u0131n\u0131 qoruyub saxlamaq u\u00e7un bir s\u0131ra layih\u0259l\u0259r h\u0259yata ke\u00e7irilir. Buna M\u0259nzil \u0130n\u015faat D\u00f6vl\u0259t Agentliyinin \u201cSosial evl\u0259r\u201d layih\u0259sini misal g\u00f6st\u0259r\u0259 bil\u0259rik. Layih\u0259 \u00e7\u0259r\u00e7iv\u0259sind\u0259 x\u00fcsusi ayr\u0131lm\u0131\u015f \u0259razil\u0259rd\u0259 \u015f\u0259h\u0259rcik yarad\u0131lacaq. Bu \u015f\u0259h\u0259rcikl\u0259rd\u0259 x\u00fcsusi layih\u0259l\u0259r \u00fczr\u0259 h\u00fcnd\u00fcrm\u0259rt\u0259b\u0259li ya\u015fay\u0131\u015f binalar\u0131n\u0131n, m\u0259kt\u0259b, u\u015faq ba\u011f\u00e7as\u0131 v\u0259 m\u00fcxt\u0259lif infrastrukturlar\u0131n yarad\u0131lmas\u0131 n\u0259z\u0259rd\u0259 tutulur. Bu m\u0259nzill\u0259r ad\u0131ndan g\u00f6r\u00fcnd\u00fcy\u00fc kimi maddi imkanlar\u0131 az olan ail\u0259l\u0259r \u00fc\u00e7\u00fcn n\u0259z\u0259rd\u0259 tutulacaq. V\u0259t\u0259nda\u015flara g\u00fcz\u0259\u015ftli \u015f\u0259rtl\u0259r il\u0259 uzunm\u00fcdd\u0259tli kreditl\u0259r veril\u0259c\u0259k.<\/p>\n Uy\u011fun qiym\u0259t\u0259 m\u0259nzil t\u0259minat\u0131 layih\u0259l\u0259ri h\u0259yata ke\u00e7iril\u0259r\u0259k \u0259halinin sosial durumunun t\u0259nziml\u0259nm\u0259sini v\u0259 \u0259n \u0259sas\u0131 da\u015f\u0131nmaz \u0259mlak bazar\u0131ndak\u0131 sabitliyi t\u0259min ed\u0259c\u0259k. Bununla yana\u015f\u0131, tikinti sektoruna yerli v\u0259 xarici investisiyalar\u0131n c\u0259lb olunmas\u0131na \u015f\u0259rait yarad\u0131lacaq [8].<\/p>\n Bu tip layih\u0259l\u0259rin \u00f6lk\u0259nin regionlar\u0131nda da h\u0259yata ke\u00e7irilm\u0259si n\u0259z\u0259rd\u0259 tutulur. \u018fsas m\u0259qs\u0259d \u0259halinin s\u0131x yerl\u0259\u015fdiyi v\u0259 t\u0259l\u0259bat\u0131n y\u00fcks\u0259k oldu\u011fu yerl\u0259rd\u0259 azt\u0259minatl\u0131 ail\u0259l\u0259rin m\u0259nzil il\u0259 t\u0259min olunmas\u0131d\u0131r.<\/p>\n Tikinti sektoru \u00f6lk\u0259mizin sur\u0259tl\u0259 inki\u015faf ed\u0259n sah\u0259l\u0259rind\u0259n biridir. A\u015fa\u011f\u0131dak\u0131 qrafikd\u0259 2001-2023-c\u00fc ill\u0259rd\u0259 tikinti sah\u0259sind\u0259 yaranm\u0131\u015f \u0259lav\u0259 d\u0259y\u0259r, cari qiym\u0259tl\u0259rl\u0259 (mln manatla) \u0259ks olunmu\u015fdur:<\/p>\n <\/p>\n M\u0259nb\u0259: <\/strong>Az\u0259rbaycan Respublikas\u0131n\u0131n D\u00f6vl\u0259t Statistika Komit\u0259si<\/p>\n <\/p>\n Qrafikd\u0259n g\u00f6r\u00fcnd\u00fcy\u00fc kimi, 2000-2014-c\u00fc ill\u0259rd\u0259 tikinti-in\u015faat sektorunda yaranan \u0259lav\u0259 d\u0259y\u0259rin miqdar\u0131 kifay\u0259t q\u0259d\u0259r y\u00fcks\u0259k art\u0131m tempind\u0259 olmu\u015fdur. Lakin son ill\u0259r \u0259rzind\u0259 m\u00fc\u0259yy\u0259n dal\u011falanmalar m\u00fc\u015fahid\u0259 edilir.<\/p>\n Tikinti sektoruna m\u00fcr\u0259kk\u0259b qar\u015f\u0131l\u0131ql\u0131 \u0259laq\u0259l\u0259r\u0259 malik kibernetik sistem kimi yana\u015fsaq, bu sektorun f\u0259aliyy\u0259tinin n\u0259tic\u0259l\u0259rin\u0259 bilavasit\u0259 t\u0259sir ed\u0259n faktorlar\u0131 m\u00fc\u0259yy\u0259n ed\u0259r\u0259k, bu faktorlar\u0131 \u0259ks etdir\u0259n d\u0259yi\u015f\u0259nl\u0259r aras\u0131ndak\u0131 \u0259laq\u0259l\u0259rin k\u0259miyy\u0259tc\u0259 qiym\u0259tl\u0259ndirilm\u0259si v\u0259 ekonometrik t\u0259dqiqi m\u0259s\u0259l\u0259sini qoymaq olar.<\/p>\n <\/p>\n Zaman s\u0131ralar\u0131n\u0131n stasionarl\u0131\u011f\u0131n\u0131n yoxlan\u0131lmas\u0131 <\/strong><\/p>\n <\/p>\n \u00d6lk\u0259nin tikinti sektoru \u00fczr\u0259 ekonometrik t\u0259dqiqatlar c\u0259dv\u0259l 1\u2013d\u0259 \u0259ks olunmu\u015f statistik m\u0259lumatlar bazas\u0131nda bir ne\u00e7\u0259 m\u0259rh\u0259l\u0259d\u0259 apar\u0131lm\u0131\u015fd\u0131r [6; 12; 23]:<\/p>\n <\/p>\n C\u0259dv\u0259l 1. Tikinti sektorunun statistikas\u0131<\/strong><\/p>\n Ekonometrik t\u0259dqiqatlar n\u0259z\u0259riyy\u0259sin\u0259 g\u00f6r\u0259, zaman s\u0131ralar\u0131n\u0131n stasionarl\u0131\u011f\u0131n\u0131n yoxlan\u0131lmas\u0131 m\u0259s\u0259l\u0259si bu t\u0259hlilin m\u00fch\u00fcm m\u0259rh\u0259l\u0259sidir. Proqnozla\u015fd\u0131rmada zaman s\u0131ralar\u0131ndan istifad\u0259nin \u0259sasland\u0131\u011f\u0131 \u0259sas f\u0259rziyy\u0259 ondan ibar\u0259tdir ki, t\u0259dqiq olunan sistemin reaksiyas\u0131na t\u0259sir ed\u0259n amill\u0259r ke\u00e7mi\u015fd\u0259 v\u0259 indiki d\u00f6vrd\u0259 m\u00fc\u0259yy\u0259n \u015f\u0259kild\u0259 h\u0259r\u0259k\u0259t etmi\u015f v\u0259 g\u0259l\u0259c\u0259kd\u0259 ox\u015far \u015f\u0259kild\u0259 h\u0259r\u0259k\u0259t ed\u0259c\u0259yi g\u00f6zl\u0259nilir. Buna g\u00f6r\u0259 d\u0259, zaman s\u0131ralar\u0131n\u0131n t\u0259hlilinin \u0259sas m\u0259qs\u0259di sistemin g\u0259l\u0259c\u0259k davran\u0131\u015f\u0131n\u0131 proqnozla\u015fd\u0131rmaq v\u0259 rasional idar\u0259etm\u0259 q\u0259rarlar\u0131n\u0131 haz\u0131rlamaq \u00fc\u00e7\u00fcn bu t\u0259sir ed\u0259n amill\u0259ri qiym\u0259tl\u0259ndirm\u0259k v\u0259 t\u0259crid etm\u0259kdir. Zaman s\u0131ralar\u0131n\u0131n stasionarl\u0131\u011f\u0131 qrafik analiz, korreloqram testl\u0259ri v\u0259 vahid k\u00f6k testl\u0259ri il\u0259 yoxlan\u0131l\u0131r.<\/p>\n M\u0259lum oldu\u011fu kimi, iqtisadi g\u00f6st\u0259ricil\u0259rin zaman s\u0131ralar\u0131 \u00f6z xarakterin\u0259 g\u00f6r\u0259 determinik zaman trendinin m\u00f6vcudlu\u011funa g\u00f6r\u0259 art\u0131q qeyri-stasionard\u0131r [9; 14; 17].<\/p>\n Tikinti sektoru \u00fczr\u0259 as\u0131l\u0131l\u0131qlar\u0131n k\u0259miyy\u0259tc\u0259 qiym\u0259tl\u0259ndirilm\u0259si il\u0259 ba\u011fl\u0131 apard\u0131\u011f\u0131m\u0131z ekonometrik t\u0259dqiqatlar\u0131n ilk m\u0259rh\u0259l\u0259sind\u0259 \u00f6lk\u0259 \u00fczr\u0259 istifad\u0259y\u0259 verilmi\u015f ya\u015fay\u0131\u015f evl\u0259rinin \u00fcmumi sah\u0259si il\u0259 \u0259hali g\u0259lirl\u0259ri, b\u00fct\u00fcn maliyy\u0259 m\u0259nb\u0259l\u0259ri hesab\u0131na \u0259sas kapitala investisiyalar\u0131n h\u0259cmi, \u00f6lk\u0259 \u00fczr\u0259 nikahlar\u0131n say\u0131 aras\u0131ndak\u0131 k\u0259miyy\u0259t as\u0131l\u0131l\u0131qlar\u0131n\u0131 qiym\u0259tl\u0259ndirm\u0259k \u00fc\u00e7\u00fcn ekonometrik t\u0259hlil apar\u0131lm\u0131\u015fd\u0131r. Bu m\u0259rh\u0259l\u0259nin m\u0259qs\u0259di \u00f6lk\u0259 \u00fczr\u0259 istifad\u0259y\u0259 verilmi\u015f ya\u015fay\u0131\u015f evl\u0259rinin \u00fcmumi sah\u0259sini izah olunan d\u0259yi\u015f\u0259n (CRB) hesab ed\u0259r\u0259k bu g\u00f6st\u0259riciy\u0259 \u00f6lk\u0259 \u00fczr\u0259 \u0259hali g\u0259lirl\u0259ri (INC), \u0259sas kapitala investisiyalar (INVEST) v\u0259 nikahlar\u0131n say\u0131 (MRS) kimi reqressorlar\u0131n (izahedici d\u0259yi\u015f\u0259nl\u0259rin) t\u0259sirinin \u0259laq\u0259 t\u0259nliyini qurmaqd\u0131r.<\/p>\n A\u015fa\u011f\u0131dak\u0131 \u015f\u0259kill\u0259rd\u0259 c\u0259dv\u0259l 1-d\u0259 t\u0259qdim olunan zaman s\u0131ralar\u0131n\u0131n qrafikl\u0259ri \u0259ks olunmu\u015fdur [9; 10].<\/p>\n Qrafik olaraq t\u0259qdim olunan zaman s\u0131ralar\u0131n\u0131n t\u0259hlili g\u00f6st\u0259rir ki, onlar\u0131n ham\u0131s\u0131 m\u00fc\u0259yy\u0259n zaman meylin\u0259, y\u0259ni determinik trend\u0259 malikdirl\u0259r v\u0259 buna g\u00f6r\u0259 d\u0259 qeyri-stasionar zaman s\u0131ralar\u0131d\u0131r.<\/p>\n N\u0259z\u0259rd\u0259n ke\u00e7iril\u0259n zaman s\u0131ralar\u0131n\u0131n stasionarl\u0131\u011f\u0131n\u0131 yoxlamaq \u00fc\u00e7\u00fcn biz Dikki-Fuller testind\u0259n istifad\u0259 etdik [10; 13; 21]. A\u015fa\u011f\u0131dak\u0131 c\u0259dv\u0259ll\u0259rd\u0259 as\u0131l\u0131 d\u0259yi\u015f\u0259n CRB v\u0259 INC, INVEST, MRS reqressorlar\u0131n\u0131n zaman s\u0131ralar\u0131 \u00fc\u00e7\u00fcn Dikki-Fuller testi statistikas\u0131 g\u00f6st\u0259rilir.<\/p>\n <\/p>\n 2, 3, 4 v\u0259 5-ci statistik c\u0259dv\u0259ll\u0259rin t\u0259hlili g\u00f6st\u0259rir ki, b\u00fct\u00fcn d\u00f6rd zaman s\u0131ras\u0131 \u00fc\u00e7\u00fcn Prob* =0,0. N\u0259tic\u0259 etibaril\u0259 c\u0259dv\u0259l 1-d\u0259ki b\u00fct\u00fcn zaman s\u0131ralar\u0131 \u00fc\u00e7\u00fcn 1% \u0259h\u0259miyy\u0259tlilik d\u0259r\u0259c\u0259sind\u0259 s\u0131f\u0131r hipotezini r\u0259dd edirik. B\u00fct\u00fcn zaman s\u0131ralar\u0131n\u0131n 1-ci t\u0259rtib f\u0259rqi (I(1)) stasionard\u0131r, y\u0259ni birinci d\u0259r\u0259c\u0259li inteqrasiya olunub v\u0259 tikinti sektorunda as\u0131l\u0131l\u0131qlar\u0131n ekonometrik modell\u0259\u015fdirilm\u0259si \u00fc\u00e7\u00fcn uy\u011fundur [2; 10; 12].<\/p>\n Tikinti sektorunda as\u0131l\u0131l\u0131qlar\u0131n k\u0259miyy\u0259t qiym\u0259tl\u0259ndirilm\u0259si \u00fczr\u0259 ekonometrik t\u0259dqiqat\u0131n birinci m\u0259rh\u0259l\u0259sind\u0259 biz \u00f6lk\u0259 \u00fczr\u0259 istifad\u0259y\u0259 verilmi\u015f ya\u015fay\u0131\u015f evl\u0259rinin \u00fcmumi sah\u0259si il\u0259 \u0259halinin g\u0259lirl\u0259ri, b\u00fct\u00fcn maliyy\u0259 m\u0259nb\u0259l\u0259rind\u0259n \u0259sas kapitala investisiyalar v\u0259 nikahlar\u0131n say\u0131 aras\u0131nda k\u0259miyy\u0259t as\u0131l\u0131l\u0131qlar\u0131n\u0131 qiym\u0259tl\u0259ndirm\u0259k \u00fc\u00e7\u00fcn ekonometrik t\u0259hlil apard\u0131q. Verilmi\u015f t\u0259hlil\u0259 nikahlar\u0131n say\u0131n\u0131n daxil edilm\u0259si daha \u00e7ox sosial bir problemdir. Az\u0259rbaycan\u0131n milli \u0259n\u0259n\u0259si ail\u0259 ba\u011flar\u0131n\u0131n m\u00f6hk\u0259mliyi, cavan ail\u0259l\u0259r\u0259 d\u0259st\u0259k v\u0259 \u0259n \u0259sas\u0131 m\u0259nzil il\u0259 t\u0259min etm\u0259k kimi m\u0259s\u0259l\u0259l\u0259r \u00f6n plandad\u0131r. Bu s\u0259b\u0259bd\u0259n tikinti sektorunda yeni ya\u015fay\u0131\u015f binalar\u0131n\u0131n tikilm\u0259si, m\u0259nzill\u0259rin sat\u0131\u015f\u0131 cavan ail\u0259l\u0259rin \u015f\u0259xsi m\u0259nzil il\u0259 t\u0259min edilm\u0259si probleminin h\u0259llin\u0259 d\u0259st\u0259k verir [2; 8; 21].<\/p>\n <\/p>\n Tikinti sektoru \u00fc\u00e7\u00fcn \u00e7oxd\u0259yi\u015f\u0259nli reqressiya t\u0259hlili<\/strong><\/p>\n <\/p>\n Bu m\u0259rh\u0259l\u0259nin m\u0259qs\u0259di \u00f6lk\u0259d\u0259 istifad\u0259y\u0259 verilmi\u015f ya\u015fay\u0131\u015f binalar\u0131n\u0131n \u00fcmumi sah\u0259sin\u0259 (as\u0131l\u0131 d\u0259yi\u015f\u0259n- CRB) \u0259halinin g\u0259lirl\u0259ri (izahedici d\u0259yi\u015f\u0259n- \u0130NC), \u0259sas kapitala investisiyalar (izahedici d\u0259yi\u015f\u0259n- \u0130NVEST) v\u0259 nikahlar\u0131n say\u0131 (izahedici d\u0259yi\u015f\u0259n- MRS) kimi reqressorlar\u0131n t\u0259sirini g\u00f6st\u0259r\u0259n t\u0259nlikl\u0259r qurmaqd\u0131r.<\/p>\n M\u0259s\u0259l\u0259nin Eviews proqram\u0131 bazas\u0131nda h\u0259llinin n\u0259tic\u0259l\u0259ri a\u015fa\u011f\u0131dak\u0131 kimi olmu\u015fdur:<\/p>\n <\/p>\n Bu statistikaya \u0259sas\u0259n a\u015fa\u011f\u0131dak\u0131 reqressiya t\u0259nliyi al\u0131nm\u0131\u015fd\u0131r:<\/p>\n d(CRB)=-609,12+0,15d(\u0130NC)+0,33d(\u0130NVEST)+0,02d(MRS) (1)<\/p>\n P \u25a0 \u25a0 (0,35) \u25a0 \u25a0 (0,40) \u25a0 \u25a0 (0,34) \u25a0 \u25a0 (0,72)<\/p>\n Al\u0131nm\u0131\u015f ekonometrik model\u0259 g\u00f6r\u0259 dig\u0259r d\u0259yi\u015f\u0259nl\u0259r sabit qalarsa, \u0259halinin g\u0259lirl\u0259rinin bir milyon manat artmas\u0131 istifad\u0259y\u0259 veril\u0259n m\u0259nzill\u0259rin \u00fcmumi sah\u0259sinin 0,15 min kv. metr, \u0259sas kapitala investisiyalar\u0131n h\u0259cminin bir milyon manat artmas\u0131 m\u0259nzill\u0259rin sah\u0259sinin 0,09 min kv. metr, nikahlar\u0131n say\u0131n\u0131n bir vahid artmas\u0131 is\u0259 m\u0259nzill\u0259rin sah\u0259sinin 0,02 min kv. metr artmas\u0131na g\u0259tirib \u00e7\u0131xar\u0131r. Qeyd ed\u0259k ki, (1) reqressiya modelinin keyfiyy\u0259ti \u00e7ox y\u00fcks\u0259k olmad\u0131\u011f\u0131 \u00fc\u00e7\u00fcn bu iqtisadi interpretasiyan\u0131 ilkin q\u0259rar kimi q\u0259bul edirik [1; 21].<\/p>\n (1) modelinin \u0259msallar\u0131n\u0131n P ehtimallar\u0131n\u0131n qiym\u0259tl\u0259rinin \u03b1 etibarl\u0131l\u0131q s\u0259viyy\u0259si il\u0259 m\u00fcqayis\u0259si g\u00f6st\u0259rir ki, b\u00fct\u00fcn \u0259msallar statistik \u0259h\u0259miyy\u0259tsizdir. Dem\u0259li, model d\u00fczg\u00fcn spesifikasiya olunmam\u0131\u015fd\u0131r. Modelin keyfiyy\u0259tini y\u00fcks\u0259ltm\u0259k \u00fc\u00e7\u00fcn qeyri-x\u0259tti reqressiya funksiyalar\u0131 \u00fc\u00e7\u00fcn x\u0259ttil\u0259\u015fm\u0259 proseduru yerin\u0259 yetirilir. \u0130lk n\u00f6vb\u0259d\u0259 zaman s\u0131ralar\u0131 loqorifml\u0259nir v\u0259 a\u015fa\u011f\u0131dak\u0131 model t\u0259rtib edilir [20].<\/p>\n <\/p>\n Ln(Y \u0302 )=\u03b2_0+\u03b2_1 Ln(X_i1 )+\u03b2_2 Ln(X_i2 )+\u22ef+\u03b2_m Ln(X_im)+\u03b5_(i ) (2)<\/p>\n <\/p>\n (2) modeli t\u0259rtib edildikd\u0259n sonra yenil\u0259nmi\u015f Ln(Y \u0302 ), Ln(X_i1 ),Ln(X_i2 ),\u2026,Ln(X_im) d\u0259yi\u015f\u0259nl\u0259rinin \u0259msallar\u0131 m\u00fc\u0259yy\u0259n edilir. X\u0259ttil\u0259\u015fmi\u015f reqressiyan\u0131n \u0259msallar\u0131 el\u0259 se\u00e7ilir ki, onlar \u00fc\u00e7\u00fcn a\u015fa\u011f\u0131dak\u0131 \u015f\u0259rtl\u0259r \u00f6d\u0259nsin: [11; 15].<\/p>\n <\/p>\n Bu statistikaya \u0259sas\u0259n a\u015fa\u011f\u0131dak\u0131 reqressiya t\u0259nliyi al\u0131nm\u0131\u015fd\u0131r:<\/p>\n <\/p>\n log(CRB)=9,20-0,25log(\u0130NC)+0,94og(\u0130NVEST)-0,71log(MRS) (4)<\/p>\n P \u25a0 \u25a0 (0,02) \u25a0 \u25a0 (0,36) \u25a0 \u25a0 (0,01) \u25a0 \u25a0 (0,07)<\/p>\n <\/p>\n (4) reqressiya t\u0259nliyinin \u0259msallar\u0131n\u0131n ehtimallar\u0131n\u0131n P qiym\u0259tl\u0259ri g\u00f6st\u0259rir ki, \u0130NC v\u0259 \u0130NVEST izahedicil\u0259rinin \u0259msallar\u0131 5% \u0259h\u0259miyy\u0259tlilik s\u0259viyy\u0259si \u00fc\u00e7\u00fcn statistik \u0259h\u0259miyy\u0259tlidirl\u0259r [1; 15].<\/p>\n Bu t\u0259nliy\u0259 \u0259saslanan iqtisadi \u015f\u0259rh\u0259 g\u00f6r\u0259, dig\u0259r d\u0259yi\u015f\u0259nl\u0259r sabit qalarsa, \u0259halinin investisiya qoyulu\u015funun bir faiz artmas\u0131 n\u0259tic\u0259sind\u0259 istifad\u0259 \u00fc\u00e7\u00fcn n\u0259z\u0259rd\u0259 tutulan ya\u015fay\u0131\u015f binalar\u0131n\u0131n \u00fcmumi sah\u0259si orta hesabla 0,94% art\u0131r. Vahid ba\u015f\u0131na g\u0259lirl\u0259rin v\u0259 nikahlar\u0131n say\u0131n\u0131n artmas\u0131 istifad\u0259 \u00fc\u00e7\u00fcn n\u0259z\u0259rd\u0259 tutulmu\u015f ya\u015fay\u0131\u015f binalar\u0131n\u0131n \u00fcmumi sah\u0259sinin azalmas\u0131na s\u0259b\u0259b olur. \u018fmsallar\u0131n i\u015far\u0259l\u0259rinin n\u0259z\u0259ri f\u0259rziyy\u0259l\u0259r\u0259 uy\u011funlu\u011funu t\u0259hlil ed\u0259k: \u0130NVEST \u0259msal\u0131n\u0131n m\u00fcsb\u0259t d\u0259y\u0259ri iqtisadi anlay\u0131\u015flara uy\u011fundur, bunu INC v\u0259 MRS i\u015far\u0259l\u0259ri haqq\u0131nda is\u0259 s\u00f6yl\u0259m\u0259k m\u00fcmk\u00fcn deyil.<\/p>\n \u00c7ox vaxt reqressiya modell\u0259rind\u0259 izahedici d\u0259yi\u015f\u0259nl\u0259r kimi t\u0259kc\u0259 k\u0259miyy\u0259t deyil, h\u0259m d\u0259 keyfiyy\u0259t d\u0259yi\u015f\u0259nl\u0259rind\u0259n istifad\u0259 etm\u0259k laz\u0131md\u0131r. Tipik olaraq, modell\u0259rd\u0259 keyfiyy\u0259t amilinin t\u0259siri keyfiyy\u0259t amilinin iki \u0259ks v\u0259ziyy\u0259tini \u0259ks etdir\u0259n fiktiv (dummy variable trap) d\u0259yi\u015f\u0259n \u015f\u0259klind\u0259 ifad\u0259 edilir. Saxta d\u0259yi\u015f\u0259nl\u0259r olduqda orijinal x\u0259tti reqressiya modeli a\u015fa\u011f\u0131dak\u0131 kimi yaz\u0131l\u0131r: [4; 20]<\/p>\n (4) reqressiya modelin\u0259 fiktiv d\u0259yi\u015f\u0259ni daxil ets\u0259k, Eviews \u0259sas\u0131nda a\u015fa\u011f\u0131dak\u0131 statistikan\u0131 al\u0131r\u0131q:<\/p>\n Statistik t\u0259hlil n\u0259tic\u0259sind\u0259 al\u0131nan coxd\u0259yi\u015f\u0259nli reqressiya:<\/p>\n \u018fld\u0259 edilmi\u015f ekonometrik model\u0259 \u0259sas\u0259n \u0259halinin g\u0259lirl\u0259rind\u0259ki d\u0259yi\u015fiklikl\u0259r istifad\u0259y\u0259 verilmi\u015f m\u0259nzill\u0259rin \u00fcmumi sah\u0259sin\u0259 t\u0259sir g\u00f6st\u0259rmir. Y\u0259ni g\u0259lird\u0259ki d\u0259yi\u015fiklikl\u0259r m\u0259nzil sah\u0259sind\u0259ki d\u0259yi\u015fiklikl\u0259r\u0259 azald\u0131c\u0131 t\u0259sir g\u00f6st\u0259rir. Daha do\u011frusu, dig\u0259r d\u0259yi\u015f\u0259nl\u0259r sabit qalarsa, g\u0259lirin bir faiz artmas\u0131 istifad\u0259 \u00fc\u00e7\u00fcn n\u0259z\u0259rd\u0259 tutulan m\u0259nzill\u0259rin \u00fcmumi sah\u0259sinin ortalama olaraq 0,17% azalmas\u0131na s\u0259b\u0259b olur [1; 3]. Dig\u0259r reqressorlar\u0131n art\u0131m\u0131 m\u0259nzill\u0259rin sah\u0259sin\u0259 m\u00fcsb\u0259t t\u0259sir g\u00f6st\u0259rir. Reqressiya t\u0259nliyin\u0259 g\u00f6r\u0259, dig\u0259r d\u0259yi\u015f\u0259nl\u0259r sabit qalarsa \u0259sas kapitala investisiyan\u0131n bir faiz artmas\u0131 m\u0259nzill\u0259rin sah\u0259sinin ortalama olaraq 0,65% artmas\u0131na s\u0259b\u0259b olur, nikahlar\u0131n say\u0131n\u0131n bir faiz artmas\u0131 is\u0259 m\u0259nzill\u0259rin sah\u0259sinin 0,07% artmas\u0131na s\u0259b\u0259b olur. Qeyd ed\u0259k ki, reqressiya modelinin (6) keyfiyy\u0259ti yax\u015f\u0131 olmad\u0131\u011f\u0131 \u00fc\u00e7\u00fcn bu iqtisadi \u015f\u0259rhi \u0259sas q\u0259rar kimi q\u0259bul etmirik. Etibarl\u0131l\u0131q s\u0259viyy\u0259si \u03b1=0,05 olan (6) modelind\u0259 \u0259msal ehtimallar\u0131n\u0131n P qiym\u0259tl\u0259rinin m\u00fcqayis\u0259si g\u00f6st\u0259rir ki, INVEST d\u0259yi\u015f\u0259ninin \u0259msal\u0131 statistik \u0259h\u0259miyy\u0259tlidir. Saxta d\u0259yi\u015f\u0259nl\u0259r \u00fc\u00e7\u00fcn \u0259msallar statistik \u0259h\u0259miyy\u0259tli oldu\u011fundan, onlar\u0131n daxil edilm\u0259sinin m\u0259qs\u0259d\u0259uy\u011fun oldu\u011funu s\u00f6yl\u0259y\u0259 bil\u0259rik. Lakin INC d\u0259yi\u015f\u0259ninin m\u0259nfi \u0259msal\u0131 iqtisadi anlay\u0131\u015flara uy\u011fun g\u0259lmir [6; 7].<\/p>\n <\/p>\n Qurulmu\u015f modelin keyfiyy\u0259tinin y\u00fcks\u0259ldilm\u0259si v\u0259 adekvatl\u0131\u011f\u0131n\u0131n t\u0259hlili<\/strong><\/p>\n <\/p>\n Zaman s\u0131ralar\u0131nda \u00e7ox vaxt\u0131 d\u0259yi\u015f\u0259nl\u0259rin artan v\u0259 ya azalan trend \u00fczr\u0259 stabilliyi m\u00fc\u015fahid\u0259 olunur. Bu s\u0259b\u0259bd\u0259n ekonometrik t\u0259hlil zaman\u0131 TREND faktoru n\u0259z\u0259r\u0259 al\u0131nmal\u0131d\u0131r. Zamandan as\u0131l\u0131l\u0131q problemini h\u0259ll etm\u0259k \u00fc\u00e7\u00fcn (6) \u00e7oxd\u0259yi\u015f\u0259nli reqressiya modelin\u0259 \u201c@TREND\u201d s\u0259rb\u0259st d\u0259yi\u015f\u0259nini daxil ed\u0259k [1; 13; 17].<\/p>\n G\u00f6rd\u00fcy\u00fcm\u00fcz kimi, model\u0259 daxil edil\u0259n \u201c@TREND\u201d d\u0259yi\u015f\u0259ninin \u0259msal\u0131 5% \u0259h\u0259miyy\u0259tlilik s\u0259viyy\u0259sind\u0259 statistik olaraq \u0259h\u0259miy\u0259tlidir. Dem\u0259li, zamandan as\u0131l\u0131l\u0131q problemi kifay\u0259t q\u0259d\u0259r y\u00fcks\u0259kdir v\u0259 model\u0259 \u201c@TREND\u201d d\u0259yi\u015f\u0259ninin daxil edilm\u0259si m\u0259qs\u0259d\u0259uy\u011fundur.<\/p>\n Bir \u00e7ox iqtisadi g\u00f6st\u0259ricil\u0259ri t\u0259hlil ed\u0259rk\u0259n, x\u00fcsus\u0259n d\u0259 makroiqtisadiyyatda zaman s\u0131ralar\u0131ndan istifad\u0259 olunur. Zaman s\u0131ralar\u0131 il\u0259 ekonometrik t\u0259hlild\u0259 as\u0131l\u0131l\u0131\u011f\u0131n t\u0259dqiqi \u00e7ox vaxt d\u0259yi\u015f\u0259nl\u0259rin cari d\u0259y\u0259rl\u0259rind\u0259n deyil, h\u0259m d\u0259 zaman\u0131n b\u0259zi \u0259vv\u0259lki d\u0259y\u0259rl\u0259rind\u0259n istifad\u0259 edilir. \u00d6z n\u00f6vb\u0259sind\u0259, t\u0259siri geril\u0259m\u0259 il\u0259 xarakteriz\u0259 olunan d\u0259yi\u015f\u0259nl\u0259r\u0259 gecikmi\u015f d\u0259yi\u015f\u0259nl\u0259r – laq d\u0259yi\u015f\u0259nl\u0259ri deyilir.<\/p>\n Paylanm\u0131\u015f gecikm\u0259li model \u2013laq d\u0259yi\u015f\u0259ni yaln\u0131z s\u0259rb\u0259st d\u0259yi\u015f\u0259nl\u0259r s\u0259klind\u0259 olan modell\u0259rdir [9; 11; 14].<\/p>\n Biz (6) modelinin keyfiyy\u0259tinin art\u0131rmaq m\u0259qs\u0259dil\u0259 \u0130NVEST izahedicisinin tikinti sektoruna q\u0131sam\u00fcdd\u0259tli (short-term) t\u0259sirini \u0259ks etdir\u0259n laq d\u0259yi\u015f\u0259nini daxil ed\u0259k. Q\u0131sam\u00fcdd\u0259tli t\u0259sir dedikd\u0259, s\u0259rb\u0259st d\u0259yi\u015f\u0259nin qiym\u0259tind\u0259 d\u0259yi\u015fm\u0259nin as\u0131l\u0131 d\u0259yi\u015f\u0259nin bir d\u00f6vr sonrak\u0131 qiym\u0259tin\u0259 t\u0259siri ba\u015fa d\u00fc\u015f\u00fcl\u00fcr. [1; 4; 7].<\/p>\n Statistik t\u0259hlil n\u0259tic\u0259sind\u0259 al\u0131nan coxd\u0259yi\u015f\u0259nli reqressiya:<\/p>\n (8) modelinin b\u00fct\u00fcn \u0259msallar\u0131 5% \u0259h\u0259miyy\u0259tlilik s\u0259viyy\u0259sind\u0259 \u0259h\u0259miyy\u0259tlidir. Fiktiv d\u0259yi\u015f\u0259nl\u0259ri v\u0259 TREND d\u0259yi\u015f\u0259nl\u0259rinin \u0259msallar\u0131 statistik olaraq \u0259h\u0259miyy\u0259tlidirl\u0259r [9; 4; 21].<\/p>\n (8) t\u0259nliy\u0259 \u0259saslanan iqtisadi \u015f\u0259rh\u0259 g\u00f6r\u0259, dig\u0259r d\u0259yi\u015f\u0259nl\u0259r sabit qalarsa \u0259halinin g\u0259lirl\u0259rinin bir faiz artmas\u0131 n\u0259tic\u0259sind\u0259 istifad\u0259 \u00fc\u00e7\u00fcn n\u0259z\u0259rd\u0259 tutulan ya\u015fay\u0131\u015f binalar\u0131n\u0131n \u00fcmumi sah\u0259si orta hesabla 0,34%, investisiya qoyulu\u015funun bir faiz artmas\u0131 n\u0259tic\u0259sind\u0259 istifad\u0259 \u00fc\u00e7\u00fcn n\u0259z\u0259rd\u0259 tutulan ya\u015fay\u0131\u015f binalar\u0131n\u0131n \u00fcmumi sah\u0259si orta hesabla 0,66%, nikahlar\u0131n say\u0131n\u0131n bir faiz artmas\u0131 n\u0259tic\u0259sind\u0259 istifad\u0259 \u00fc\u00e7\u00fcn n\u0259z\u0259rd\u0259 tutulan ya\u015fay\u0131\u015f binalar\u0131n\u0131n \u00fcmumi sah\u0259si orta hesabla 0,81% art\u0131r. Dig\u0259r d\u0259yi\u015f\u0259nl\u0259r sabit qalarsa bir \u0259vv\u0259lki d\u00f6vrd\u0259 investisiyan\u0131n bir faiz art\u0131\u015f\u0131 n\u0259tic\u0259sind\u0259 istifad\u0259 \u00fc\u00e7\u00fcn n\u0259z\u0259rd\u0259 tutulan ya\u015fay\u0131\u015f binalar\u0131n\u0131n \u00fcmumi sah\u0259si orta hesabla 0,36% artacaq.<\/p>\n (8) reqressiya modelinin \u0259msallar\u0131n\u0131n \u0259h\u0259miyy\u0259tli olmas\u0131, determinasiya \u0259msal\u0131n\u0131n v\u0259 F-statistikan\u0131n y\u00fcks\u0259k olmas\u0131 modelin adekvatl\u0131q x\u00fcsusiyy\u0259tinin y\u00fcks\u0259k olmas\u0131 demek deyil. Bu s\u0259b\u0259bd\u0259n model \u00fc\u00e7\u00fcn \u201c\u018fn Ki\u00e7ik Kvadratlar \u00dcsulu\u201dnun f\u0259rziyy\u0259l\u0259rinin \u00f6d\u0259nib-\u00f6d\u0259nm\u0259diyin\u0259 n\u0259z\u0259r salaq.<\/p>\n Ard\u0131c\u0131l korrelyasiya problemi k\u0259narla\u015fmalar aras\u0131nda korrelyasiya as\u0131l\u0131l\u0131\u011f\u0131n\u0131n olmas\u0131d\u0131r.<\/p>\n <\/p>\n kor(\u03b5t;\u03b5j) = 0 avtokorrelyasiya m\u00f6vcud deyil<\/em><\/p>\n kor(\u03b5t;\u03b5j) \u2260 0 avtokorrelyasiya m\u00f6vcuddur<\/em><\/p>\n <\/p>\n Modell\u0259rin g\u00f6st\u0259ricil\u0259ri loqarifml\u0259ndiyind\u0259n avtokorrelyasiyan\u0131n olub-olmamas\u0131n\u0131 m\u00fc\u0259yy\u0259n etm\u0259k \u00fc\u00e7\u00fcn avtokorrelyasiya funksiyas\u0131ndan (qal\u0131qlar\u0131n korrelyasiyas\u0131ndan) da istifad\u0259 etm\u0259k olar. Bu halda \u0259sas \u00e7\u0259tinlik testd\u0259 istifad\u0259 olunan laqlar\u0131n say\u0131n\u0131n m\u00fc\u0259yy\u0259n edilm\u0259si il\u0259 ba\u011fl\u0131 olur. Bel\u0259 ki, \u0259g\u0259r laqlar\u0131n say\u0131 az olarsa, onda test b\u00f6y\u00fck laqlarda olan avtokorrelyasiyan\u0131 a\u015fkar etm\u0259y\u0259 bil\u0259r. Biz laqa avtokorrelyasiya \u0259msal\u0131n\u0131n t\u0259rtibi kimi, y\u0259ni \u0259msal\u0131n hesabland\u0131\u011f\u0131 d\u00f6vrl\u0259rin say\u0131 kimi yana\u015f\u0131r\u0131q. M\u0259s\u0259l\u0259n, \u0259g\u0259r laq vahid\u0259 b\u0259rab\u0259rdirs\u0259, onda q\u00f6vs\u00fc qal\u0131qlar aras\u0131ndak\u0131 as\u0131l\u0131l\u0131\u011f\u0131 \u00f6l\u00e7\u0259n 1-ci t\u0259rtib avtokorrelyasiya \u0259msal\u0131 hesablanacaqd\u0131r.<\/p>\n <\/p>\n \u015e\u0259kil 1. Qal\u0131qlar\u0131n korreloqram\u0131<\/strong><\/p>\n <\/p>\n Qal\u0131qlar\u0131n yuxar\u0131da \u0259ks olunmu\u015f korelloqram\u0131 g\u00f6st\u0259rir ki, laqlardan h\u0259r birinin qiym\u0259ti etibarl\u0131l\u0131q h\u00fcdudlar\u0131n\u0131n daxilind\u0259dir. Dem\u0259li, do\u011frudan da, modell\u0259rd\u0259 ist\u0259nil\u0259n t\u0259rtibli avtokorelyasiya m\u00f6vcud deyil [13; 17].<\/p>\n Homoskedastiklik f\u0259rziyy\u0259si k\u0259narla\u015fmalar\u0131n dispersiyalar\u0131n\u0131n sabitliyi dem\u0259kdir. \u018fks halda modeld\u0259 heteroskedastiklik problemi m\u00f6vcuddur [7; 9].<\/p>\n <\/p>\n D(\u03b5<\/em>i<\/em>\u00a0)=D(\u03b5<\/em>i<\/em>\u00a0)=\u03c3\u00b2\u00a0 (9)<\/em><\/p>\n <\/p>\n Qal\u0131qlar\u0131n heteroskedastiklik probleminin yoxlanmas\u0131 \u00fc\u00e7\u00fcn ARCH testind\u0259n istifad\u0259 ed\u0259k. Bel\u0259 ki, zaman s\u0131ralar\u0131na xas olan heteroskedastikliyin yoxlamaq bax\u0131m\u0131ndan ARCH testinin istifad\u0259si daha m\u0259qs\u0259d\u0259uy\u011fundur.<\/p>\n Statistik n\u0259tic\u0259y\u0259 g\u00f6r\u0259 Fsta =0,3221 v\u0259 ya 32,21%-dir. Dem\u0259li, (8) reqressiya modelind\u0259 qal\u0131qlar\u0131n heteroskedastiklik problemi yoxdur [3; 11].<\/p>\n Dig\u0259r f\u0259rziyy\u0259l\u0259rd\u0259n biri d\u0259 qal\u0131qlar\u0131n normal paylanmas\u0131d\u0131r. X\u00fcsusil\u0259, ki\u00e7ik\u00f6l\u00e7\u00fcl\u00fc n\u00fcmun\u0259 qruplarda qiym\u0259tl\u0259ndirm\u0259 aparark\u0259n qal\u0131qlar\u0131n normal paylanmas\u0131 vacib \u015f\u0259rtl\u0259rd\u0259n biridir.<\/p>\n Qal\u0131qlar\u0131n normal paylan\u0131b-paylanmamas\u0131n\u0131 m\u00fc\u0259yy\u0259n etm\u0259k \u00fc\u00e7\u00fcn Jarque-Bera testini t\u0259tbiq etdik. Al\u0131nan n\u0259tic\u0259y\u0259 g\u00f6r\u0259, birinci n\u00f6v x\u0259ta ehtimal\u0131 0,6202 v\u0259 ya 62,025-dir. Y\u0259ni modelin qal\u0131qlar\u0131 normal paylanmaya tabedir [1; 7; 22].<\/p>\n <\/p>\n \u015e\u0259kil 2. Jarque-Bera testi<\/strong><\/p>\n (8) modelinin g\u00f6st\u0259ricil\u0259rinin t\u0259hlili g\u00f6st\u0259rir ki, modelin keyfiyy\u0259ti kifay\u0259t q\u0259d\u0259r y\u00fcks\u0259kdir. Model tikinti sektorunun proqnozla\u015fd\u0131r\u0131lmas\u0131nda u\u011furla istifad\u0259 oluna bil\u0259r. Amma bizim t\u0259hlilin \u0259sas m\u0259qs\u0259di sosial bir problem olan nikahlar\u0131n say\u0131n\u0131n tikinti sektoruna, m\u0259nzil sat\u0131\u015f\u0131na olan t\u0259sirini \u00f6yr\u0259nm\u0259kdir. Ekonometrik t\u0259hlil k\u0259miyy\u0259t t\u0259hlili olaraq statistik baza \u0259sas\u0131nda apar\u0131lm\u0131\u015f v\u0259 al\u0131nan n\u0259tic\u0259 k\u0259miyy\u0259tc\u0259 deyil keyfiyy\u0259tc\u0259 qiym\u0259tl\u0259ndirilmi\u015fdir. T\u0259dqiqat bir daha s\u00fcbut edir ki, Az\u0259rbaycan milli \u0259n\u0259n\u0259l\u0259rin\u0259 sadiq qalan v\u0259 ail\u0259-nikah institutlar\u0131n\u0131 h\u0259l\u0259 d\u0259 \u00f6z \u00f6n\u0259mli m\u00f6vqeyind\u0259 qoruyub saxlayan d\u00f6vl\u0259tdir.<\/p>\n <\/p>\n N\u0259tic\u0259<\/strong><\/p>\n <\/p>\n Tikinti sektoru iqtisadi-kibernetik sisteml\u0259r\u0259 xas olan b\u00fct\u00fcn x\u00fcsusiyy\u0259tl\u0259r\u0259 malikdir, y\u0259ni m\u00fcr\u0259kk\u0259b, dinamik v\u0259 stoxastik sistemdir. Dem\u0259li, iqtisadiyyat\u0131n bu sektoru q\u0259bul edil\u0259n idar\u0259etm\u0259 q\u0259rarlar\u0131n\u0131n optimall\u0131\u011f\u0131n\u0131 t\u0259min ed\u0259n riyazi modell\u0259\u015fdirm\u0259 obyektidir.<\/p>\n Tikinti sektorunun ekonometrik modell\u0259\u015fdirm\u0259 \u0259sas\u0131nda ara\u015fd\u0131rmalar\u0131 g\u00f6st\u0259rmi\u015fdir ki, ya\u015fay\u0131\u015f evl\u0259rinin istifad\u0259y\u0259 verilm\u0259sinin \u00fcmumi sah\u0259sin\u0259 \u0259halinin g\u0259lirl\u0259ri, b\u00fct\u00fcn maliyy\u0259 m\u0259nb\u0259l\u0259ri hesab\u0131na \u0259sas kapitala investisiyalar v\u0259 nikahlar\u0131n say\u0131 kimi amill\u0259r t\u0259sir edir. \u0130lk add\u0131m zaman s\u0131ralar\u0131n\u0131n stasionarl\u0131\u011f\u0131n\u0131n testl\u0259\u015fdirilm\u0259sidir. Zaman s\u0131ralar\u0131 stasionar d\u0259yi\u015f\u0259n, trend-stasionar v\u0259 ya trend\u0259 n\u0259z\u0259r\u0259n stasionar v\u0259 qeyri-stasionar d\u0259yi\u015f\u0259n ola bil\u0259rl\u0259r. Bu t\u0259hlili aparark\u0259n \u0259g\u0259r zaman s\u0131ras\u0131 \u00f6z\u00fc stasionard\u0131rsa I(0), \u00f6z\u00fc qeyri-stasionard\u0131rsa, birinci t\u0259rtib f\u0259rqi is\u0259 stasionard\u0131rsa h\u0259min d\u0259yi\u015f\u0259ndir, ikinci t\u0259rtib f\u0259rqi is\u0259 stasionard\u0131rsa, h\u0259min d\u0259yi\u015f\u0259n I(2)-dir. Bizim t\u0259dqiqata c\u0259lb etdiyimiz zaman s\u0131ralar\u0131 I(1), TC stasionard\u0131rlar.<\/p>\n Lakin zaman s\u0131ras\u0131 veril\u0259nl\u0259r il\u0259 t\u0259hlil apar\u0131ld\u0131\u011f\u0131 \u00fc\u00e7\u00fcn laq d\u0259yi\u015f\u0259ni, zamandan as\u0131l\u0131l\u0131q (trend) v\u0259 m\u00f6vs\u00fcmilik (seasonality) probleml\u0259rini d\u0259 n\u0259z\u0259r\u0259 almal\u0131y\u0131q. T\u0259hlil\u0259 c\u0259lb olunmu\u015f zaman s\u0131ralar\u0131 2021 v\u0259 2022-ci ill\u0259ri \u0259hat\u0259 etdiyind\u0259n m\u00f6vs\u00fcmilik (seasonality) problemini n\u0259z\u0259r\u0259 almaya bil\u0259rik. Bu s\u0259b\u0259bd\u0259n modelin adekvatl\u0131\u011f\u0131n\u0131 art\u0131rmaq m\u0259qs\u0259dil\u0259 trend v\u0259 q\u0131sam\u00fcdd\u0259tli t\u0259sir\u0259 malik \u0130NVEST izahedicisinin bir d\u00f6vr (iqtisadi \u0259d\u0259biyyatlarda q\u0131sam\u00fcdd\u0259tli d\u00f6vr dedikd\u0259 bir il ba\u015fa d\u00fc\u015f\u00fcl\u00fcr) \u0259vv\u0259lki t\u0259sirini \u0259ks etdir\u0259n laq d\u0259yi\u015f\u0259nini daxil etdik. H\u0259r iki d\u0259yi\u015f\u0259n \u0259h\u0259miyy\u0259tli oldu\u011fundan d\u00fczg\u00fcn q\u0259rar verdiyimiz q\u0259na\u0259tin\u0259 g\u0259ldik [2; 6; 12].<\/p>\n Ekonometrik t\u0259hlill\u0259r g\u00f6st\u0259rdi ki, t\u0259hlil\u0259 c\u0259lb etdiyimiz izahedicil\u0259rin h\u0259r biri ya\u015fay\u0131\u015f binalar\u0131n\u0131n tikintisi seqmentinin yekun n\u0259tic\u0259sin\u0259 kifay\u0259t q\u0259d\u0259r \u0259h\u0259miyy\u0259tli t\u0259sir g\u00f6st\u0259rir. Ekonometrik t\u0259hlill\u0259r g\u00f6st\u0259rdi ki, al\u0131nan reqressiya t\u0259nlikl\u0259ri \u00fc\u00e7\u00fcn b\u00fct\u00fcn Qauss-Markov teoreminin \u015f\u0259rtl\u0259ri yerin\u0259 yetirilir. N\u0259tic\u0259 etibaril\u0259, t\u0259klif olunan ekonometrik modell\u0259r tikinti sektorunda real v\u0259ziyy\u0259ti adekvat \u015f\u0259kild\u0259 \u0259ks etdirir v\u0259 m\u0259nzil\u0259 t\u0259l\u0259bat\u0131n proqnozla\u015fd\u0131r\u0131lmas\u0131nda u\u011furla istifad\u0259 oluna bil\u0259r.<\/p>\n <\/p>\n The Result<\/strong><\/p>\n <\/p>\n The construction sector has all the characteristics of economic-cybernetic systems, that is, complex, dynamic and stochastic systems. Therefore, this sector of the economy is the object of mathematical modeling that ensures the optimality of management decisions.<\/p>\n Studies of the construction sector based on econometric modeling have shown that factors such as the income of the population, investments in fixed capital from all financial sources, and the number of marriages affect the total area of residential houses. The first step is to test the stationarity of the time series. Time series can be stationary variable, trend-stationary or trend-stationary and non-stationary variable. In this analysis, if the time series is itself stationary, it is I(0), if it is non-stationary, and if the first difference of composition is stationary, then it is that variable, and if the second difference of composition is stationary, then that variable is I(2). The time series I (1), TC are stationary in our study.<\/p>\n However, since the analysis is carried out with time series data, we should also consider lag variable, time dependence (trend) and seasonality (seasonality) problems. Since the time series involved in the analysis covers the years 2021 and 2022, we can ignore the problem of seasonality. For this reason, in order to increase the adequacy of the model, we included a lag variable reflecting the impact of the INVEST explanatory variable with a trend and short-term effect one period (a short-term period is understood as a year in the economic literature). Since both variables are important, we came to the conclusion that we made the right decision [2; 6; 12].<\/p>\n Econometric analyzes have shown that each of the explanatory variables included in the analysis has a significant impact on the final result of the construction of residential buildings segment. Econometric analyzes showed that all conditions of the Gauss-Markov theorem are fulfilled for the obtained regression equations. As a result, the proposed econometric models adequately reflect the real situation in the construction sector and can be successfully used in housing demand forecasting.<\/p>\n <\/p>\n \u0130ST\u0130FAD\u018f ED\u0130LM\u0130\u015e \u018fD\u018fB\u0130YYAT<\/strong><\/p>\n <\/p>\n Az\u0259rbaycan dilind\u0259:<\/strong><\/p>\n <\/p>\n \u0130ngilis dilind\u0259:<\/strong><\/p>\n <\/p>\n Rus dilind\u0259:<\/strong><\/p>\n <\/p>\n \u0130nternet resurslar\u0131:<\/strong><\/p>\n <\/p>\n \u00a0<\/strong><\/p>\n Gulnar Orujova, Ulkar Isfandiyarova, <\/strong>Parvana Ismayilova\u00a0<\/strong><\/p>\n ECONOMETR\u0130C ANALYS\u0130S OF CONSTRUCT\u0130ON SECTOR \u0130N AZERBA\u0130JAN<\/strong><\/p>\n \u00a0<\/strong>Abstract<\/strong><\/p>\n <\/p>\n This article examines the quantitative assessment of the relationships between key indicators in the residential building construction sector in Azerbaijan. The aim of the study was to build econometric models to analyze the impact of population income, investments in fixed assets, and the number of marriages on residential construction.<\/p>\n The article analyzes the economic characteristics of the construction sector and concludes that this sector functions as a complex economic-cybernetic system. Time series data on construction sector indicators and marriage statistics were used as the primary database for the research. A key aspect of time-series analysis is testing the stationarity of each variable before making any estimations and selecting the appropriate analysis method based on the results. The stationarity of the variables was tested using the extended Dickey\u2013Fuller test. The time series studied were found to be I(1) and TC stationary after first-order differencing. A graphical analysis also confirmed the presence of a trend.<\/p>\n The results of the regression analysis examined the correlation between the number of commissioned apartments and the explanatory variables based on these time series. A multivariate regression model was developed, including \u201c@TREND\u201d and lag variables. Various tests were employed to assess the adequacy of the model, including the correlogram, ARCH test (AutoRegressive Conditional Heteroscedasticity) for homoscedasticity, and the Jarque-Bera test for normal distribution, to check for serial correlation issues.<\/p>\n The established model is suitable for reflecting real conditions in the housing and labor markets and can be used for forecasting purposes.<\/p>\n Key words: <\/strong>construction sector, econometric modeling, time series, stationarity, computer software packages, autocorrelation<\/p>\n <\/p>\n \u00a0<\/strong><\/p>\n \u0413\u044e\u043b\u044c\u043d\u0430\u0440 \u041e\u0440\u0443\u0434\u0436\u043e\u0432\u0430, \u0423\u043b\u043a\u0430\u0440 \u0418\u0441\u0444\u0430\u043d\u0434\u0438\u044f\u0440\u043e\u0432\u0430, <\/strong>\u041f\u0430\u0440\u0432\u0430\u043d\u0430 \u0418\u0441\u043c\u0430\u0439\u0438\u043b\u043e\u0432\u0430<\/strong><\/p>\n \u042d\u041a\u041e\u041d\u041e\u041c\u0415\u0422\u0420\u0418\u0427\u0415\u0421\u041a\u0418\u0419 \u0410\u041d\u0410\u041b\u0418\u0417 \u0421\u0422\u0420\u041e\u0418\u0422\u0415\u041b\u042c\u041d\u041e\u0413\u041e\u00a0<\/strong>\u0421\u0415\u041a\u0422\u041e\u0420\u0410 \u0410\u0417\u0415\u0420\u0411\u0410\u0419\u0414\u0416\u0410\u041d\u0410<\/strong><\/p>\n \u00a0<\/strong>\u0420\u0435\u0437\u044e\u043c\u0435<\/strong><\/p>\n <\/p>\n \u0412 \u0441\u0442\u0430\u0442\u044c\u0435 \u0440\u0430\u0441\u0441\u043c\u0430\u0442\u0440\u0438\u0432\u0430\u044e\u0442\u0441\u044f \u0432\u043e\u043f\u0440\u043e\u0441\u044b \u043a\u043e\u043b\u0438\u0447\u0435\u0441\u0442\u0432\u0435\u043d\u043d\u043e\u0439 \u043e\u0446\u0435\u043d\u043a\u0438 \u0437\u0430\u0432\u0438\u0441\u0438\u043c\u043e\u0441\u0442\u0438 \u043c\u0435\u0436\u0434\u0443 \u043f\u043e\u043a\u0430\u0437\u0430\u0442\u0435\u043b\u044f\u043c\u0438 \u0432 \u0441\u0435\u043a\u0442\u043e\u0440\u0435 \u0436\u0438\u043b\u0438\u0449\u043d\u043e\u0433\u043e \u0441\u0442\u0440\u043e\u0438\u0442\u0435\u043b\u044c\u0441\u0442\u0432\u0430 \u0410\u0437\u0435\u0440\u0431\u0430\u0439\u0434\u0436\u0430\u043d\u0441\u043a\u043e\u0439 \u0420\u0435\u0441\u043f\u0443\u0431\u043b\u0438\u043a\u0438. \u0426\u0435\u043b\u044c\u044e \u0438\u0441\u0441\u043b\u0435\u0434\u043e\u0432\u0430\u043d\u0438\u044f \u044f\u0432\u043b\u044f\u0435\u0442\u0441\u044f \u043f\u043e\u0441\u0442\u0440\u043e\u0435\u043d\u0438\u0435 \u044d\u043a\u043e\u043d\u043e\u043c\u0435\u0442\u0440\u0438\u0447\u0435\u0441\u043a\u0438\u0445 \u043c\u043e\u0434\u0435\u043b\u0435\u0439, \u0430\u043d\u0430\u043b\u0438\u0437\u0438\u0440\u0443\u044e\u0449\u0438\u0445 \u0432\u043b\u0438\u044f\u043d\u0438\u0435 \u0434\u043e\u0445\u043e\u0434\u043e\u0432 \u043d\u0430\u0441\u0435\u043b\u0435\u043d\u0438\u044f, \u0438\u043d\u0432\u0435\u0441\u0442\u0438\u0446\u0438\u0439 \u0432 \u043e\u0441\u043d\u043e\u0432\u043d\u043e\u0439 \u043a\u0430\u043f\u0438\u0442\u0430\u043b \u0438 \u043a\u043e\u043b\u0438\u0447\u0435\u0441\u0442\u0432\u0430 \u0431\u0440\u0430\u043a\u043e\u0432 \u0432 \u0441\u0442\u0440\u0430\u043d\u0435 \u043d\u0430 \u043a\u043e\u043b\u0438\u0447\u0435\u0441\u0442\u0432\u043e \u0432\u0432\u043e\u0434\u0438\u043c\u044b\u0445 \u0432 \u044d\u043a\u0441\u043f\u043b\u0443\u0430\u0442\u0430\u0446\u0438\u044e \u0436\u0438\u043b\u044b\u0445 \u0434\u043e\u043c\u043e\u0432.<\/p>\n \u041a\u0440\u043e\u043c\u0435 \u0442\u043e\u0433\u043e, \u0432 \u0441\u0442\u0430\u0442\u044c\u0435 \u0430\u043d\u0430\u043b\u0438\u0437\u0438\u0440\u0443\u044e\u0442\u0441\u044f \u044d\u043a\u043e\u043d\u043e\u043c\u0438\u0447\u0435\u0441\u043a\u0438\u0435 \u043e\u0441\u043e\u0431\u0435\u043d\u043d\u043e\u0441\u0442\u0438 \u0441\u0442\u0440\u043e\u0438\u0442\u0435\u043b\u044c\u043d\u043e\u0439 \u043e\u0442\u0440\u0430\u0441\u043b\u0438, \u0434\u0435\u043b\u0430\u0435\u0442\u0441\u044f \u0432\u044b\u0432\u043e\u0434, \u0447\u0442\u043e \u0434\u0430\u043d\u043d\u0430\u044f \u0441\u0444\u0435\u0440\u0430 \u043f\u0440\u0435\u0434\u0441\u0442\u0430\u0432\u043b\u044f\u0435\u0442 \u0441\u043e\u0431\u043e\u0439 \u0441\u043b\u043e\u0436\u043d\u0443\u044e \u044d\u043a\u043e\u043d\u043e\u043c\u0438\u043a\u043e-\u043a\u0438\u0431\u0435\u0440\u043d\u0435\u0442\u0438\u0447\u0435\u0441\u043a\u0443\u044e \u0441\u0438\u0441\u0442\u0435\u043c\u0443.<\/p>\n \u0412 \u043a\u0430\u0447\u0435\u0441\u0442\u0432\u0435 \u0431\u0430\u0437\u044b \u0434\u0430\u043d\u043d\u044b\u0445 \u0434\u043b\u044f \u0438\u0441\u0441\u043b\u0435\u0434\u043e\u0432\u0430\u043d\u0438\u044f \u0438\u0441\u043f\u043e\u043b\u044c\u0437\u043e\u0432\u0430\u043b\u0438\u0441\u044c \u0432\u0440\u0435\u043c\u0435\u043d\u043d\u044b\u0435 \u0440\u044f\u0434\u044b \u043f\u043e\u043a\u0430\u0437\u0430\u0442\u0435\u043b\u0435\u0439 \u0441\u0442\u0440\u043e\u0438\u0442\u0435\u043b\u044c\u043d\u043e\u0433\u043e \u0441\u0435\u043a\u0442\u043e\u0440\u0430 \u0438 \u0441\u0442\u0430\u0442\u0438\u0441\u0442\u0438\u043a\u0430 \u0431\u0440\u0430\u043a\u043e\u0432. \u041e\u0441\u043d\u043e\u0432\u043d\u043e\u0439 \u0445\u0430\u0440\u0430\u043a\u0442\u0435\u0440\u0438\u0441\u0442\u0438\u043a\u043e\u0439 \u0430\u043d\u0430\u043b\u0438\u0437\u0430 \u0432\u0440\u0435\u043c\u0435\u043d\u043d\u044b\u0445 \u0440\u044f\u0434\u043e\u0432 \u044f\u0432\u043b\u044f\u0435\u0442\u0441\u044f \u043f\u0440\u043e\u0432\u0435\u0440\u043a\u0430 \u0441\u0442\u0430\u0446\u0438\u043e\u043d\u0430\u0440\u043d\u043e\u0441\u0442\u0438 \u043a\u0430\u0436\u0434\u043e\u0439 \u0438\u0437 \u043f\u0435\u0440\u0435\u043c\u0435\u043d\u043d\u044b\u0445 \u043f\u0435\u0440\u0435\u0434 \u043f\u0440\u043e\u0432\u0435\u0434\u0435\u043d\u0438\u0435\u043c \u043e\u0446\u0435\u043d\u043a\u0438, \u0430 \u0442\u0430\u043a\u0436\u0435 \u0432\u044b\u0431\u043e\u0440 \u043c\u0435\u0442\u043e\u0434\u0430 \u0430\u043d\u0430\u043b\u0438\u0437\u0430 \u0432 \u0437\u0430\u0432\u0438\u0441\u0438\u043c\u043e\u0441\u0442\u0438 \u043e\u0442 \u043f\u043e\u043b\u0443\u0447\u0435\u043d\u043d\u044b\u0445 \u0440\u0435\u0437\u0443\u043b\u044c\u0442\u0430\u0442\u043e\u0432. \u0414\u043b\u044f \u043f\u0440\u043e\u0432\u0435\u0440\u043a\u0438 \u0441\u0442\u0430\u0446\u0438\u043e\u043d\u0430\u0440\u043d\u043e\u0441\u0442\u0438 \u043f\u0435\u0440\u0435\u043c\u0435\u043d\u043d\u044b\u0445 \u0431\u044b\u043b \u0438\u0441\u043f\u043e\u043b\u044c\u0437\u043e\u0432\u0430\u043d \u0440\u0430\u0441\u0448\u0438\u0440\u0435\u043d\u043d\u044b\u0439 \u0442\u0435\u0441\u0442 \u0414\u0438\u043a\u0438-\u0424\u0443\u043b\u043b\u0435\u0440\u0430, \u044f\u0432\u043b\u044f\u044e\u0449\u0438\u0439\u0441\u044f \u043e\u0434\u043d\u0438\u043c \u0438\u0437 \u0442\u0435\u0441\u0442\u043e\u0432 \u0435\u0434\u0438\u043d\u0438\u0447\u043d\u043e\u0433\u043e \u043a\u043e\u0440\u043d\u044f. \u0412 \u0438\u0441\u0441\u043b\u0435\u0434\u043e\u0432\u0430\u043d\u0438\u0438 \u0438\u0441\u043f\u043e\u043b\u044c\u0437\u043e\u0432\u0430\u043b\u0438\u0441\u044c \u0432\u0440\u0435\u043c\u0435\u043d\u043d\u044b\u0435 \u0440\u044f\u0434\u044b I(1) \u0438 TC, \u043a\u043e\u0442\u043e\u0440\u044b\u0435 \u0441\u0442\u0430\u0446\u0438\u043e\u043d\u0430\u0440\u043d\u044b \u043f\u043e \u0440\u0430\u0437\u043d\u043e\u0441\u0442\u044f\u043c \u043f\u0435\u0440\u0432\u043e\u0433\u043e \u043f\u043e\u0440\u044f\u0434\u043a\u0430. \u0413\u0440\u0430\u0444\u0438\u0447\u0435\u0441\u043a\u0438\u0439 \u0430\u043d\u0430\u043b\u0438\u0437 \u0442\u0430\u043a\u0436\u0435 \u043f\u043e\u043a\u0430\u0437\u044b\u0432\u0430\u0435\u0442 \u043d\u0430\u043b\u0438\u0447\u0438\u0435 \u0442\u0435\u043d\u0434\u0435\u043d\u0446\u0438\u0438.<\/p>\n \u0412 \u0440\u0435\u0437\u0443\u043b\u044c\u0442\u0430\u0442\u0435 \u0440\u0435\u0433\u0440\u0435\u0441\u0441\u0438\u043e\u043d\u043d\u043e\u0433\u043e \u0430\u043d\u0430\u043b\u0438\u0437\u0430 \u043d\u0430 \u043e\u0441\u043d\u043e\u0432\u0435 \u044d\u0442\u0438\u0445 \u0432\u0440\u0435\u043c\u0435\u043d\u043d\u044b\u0445 \u0440\u044f\u0434\u043e\u0432 \u0431\u044b\u043b\u0430 \u0438\u0437\u0443\u0447\u0435\u043d\u0430 \u043a\u043e\u0440\u0440\u0435\u043b\u044f\u0446\u0438\u043e\u043d\u043d\u0430\u044f \u0437\u0430\u0432\u0438\u0441\u0438\u043c\u043e\u0441\u0442\u044c \u043c\u0435\u0436\u0434\u0443 \u043a\u043e\u043b\u0438\u0447\u0435\u0441\u0442\u0432\u043e\u043c \u0432\u0432\u0435\u0434\u0435\u043d\u043d\u044b\u0445 \u0432 \u044d\u043a\u0441\u043f\u043b\u0443\u0430\u0442\u0430\u0446\u0438\u044e \u043a\u0432\u0430\u0440\u0442\u0438\u0440 \u0438 \u0440\u0435\u0433\u0440\u0435\u0441\u0441\u043e\u0440\u0430\u043c\u0438, \u0430 \u0442\u0430\u043a\u0436\u0435 \u043f\u043e\u0441\u0442\u0440\u043e\u0435\u043d\u0430 \u043c\u043d\u043e\u0433\u043e\u043c\u0435\u0440\u043d\u0430\u044f \u0440\u0435\u0433\u0440\u0435\u0441\u0441\u0438\u043e\u043d\u043d\u0430\u044f \u043c\u043e\u0434\u0435\u043b\u044c. \u041c\u043e\u0434\u0435\u043b\u0438 \u0432\u043a\u043b\u044e\u0447\u0430\u043b\u0438 \u043f\u0435\u0440\u0435\u043c\u0435\u043d\u043d\u0443\u044e \u00ab@TREND\u00bb \u0438 \u043f\u0435\u0440\u0435\u043c\u0435\u043d\u043d\u044b\u0435 \u0437\u0430\u0434\u0435\u0440\u0436\u043a\u0438. \u0414\u043b\u044f \u043f\u0440\u043e\u0432\u0435\u0440\u043a\u0438 \u0430\u0434\u0435\u043a\u0432\u0430\u0442\u043d\u043e\u0441\u0442\u0438 \u0441\u043e\u0437\u0434\u0430\u043d\u043d\u043e\u0439 \u043c\u043e\u0434\u0435\u043b\u0438 \u0438\u0441\u043f\u043e\u043b\u044c\u0437\u043e\u0432\u0430\u043b\u0438\u0441\u044c \u0440\u0430\u0437\u043b\u0438\u0447\u043d\u044b\u0435 \u0442\u0435\u0441\u0442\u044b. \u041a\u043e\u0440\u0440\u0435\u043b\u043e\u0433\u0440\u0430\u043c\u043c\u0430, ARCH-\u0442\u0435\u0441\u0442 (AutoRegressive Conditional Heteroscedasticity) \u0434\u043b\u044f \u0433\u043e\u043c\u043e\u0441\u043a\u0435\u0434\u0430\u0441\u0442\u0438\u0447\u043d\u043e\u0441\u0442\u0438 \u0438 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![\"\"](\"https:\/\/socialresearchjournal.az\/wp-content\/uploads\/2025\/06\/pdfdown-212x300.jpg\")
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